Corona virus can prove to be fatal for India as total population is approximately 1 billion, 38 crores (1,380,004,385). It is projected that new cases may increase rapidly in the coming weeks. This rise in cases can cause severe stress in the country’s health infrastructure.
According to a new study, the number of coronavirus cases may escalate from 97,000 to 1.3 million by 15th May. According to the study’s estimates, the number of confirmed cases in India may be more than 4,000 by the end of March and between 30,000 and 230,000 by the end of April. The study also created a prediction model for case counts in India, and estimates were made under hypothetical-public health interventions.
This study, published in medium.com, is conducted by a group of American scientists.
Their aim of the study to find out how significant the risk of the disease is in India. According to Professor Bhramar Mukherjee (chair of bio-statistics at the University of Michigan School of Public Health) who is involved in the study stated that this pandemic situation could be fatal.
Based on industry projections and other data, Dhruv Chaudhary, president of the Indian Society of Critical Care Medicine, stated that there is probably only about 100,000 intensive care unit (ICU) beds and 40,000 ventilators in India. This figure indicates that “India has 0.7 hospital beds for every 100,000 people.” Moreover, Dhruv cautioned that there is not enough infrastructure or staff to handle a sharp spike in critical coronavirus patients.
So far, only 562 cases of coronavirus and 12 deaths got reported in India till 25th March. Moreover, Prime Minister has announced lock down for 21 days to avoid the coronavirus infection. India has primarily closed its railway network, banned all domestic, international flights, and ordered for complete lock down.
India has so far tested around 20,000 individuals and screened lakhs of people at the airports. Corona virus is rare among people who had direct contact with infected people having travel history abroad.
Complete prediction study can be read at – https://medium.com/@covind_19/predictions-and-role-of-interventions-for-covid-19-outbreak-in-india-52903e2544e6